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 Capture Rate Question 
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Ace Trainer
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Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2006 6:06 am
Posts: 253
Location: Hidden in the mists of time...
I'm looking to find a Lucky Egg. I know the only way to do this in LeafGreen is to capture wild Chansey in the Safari Zone until you're lucky enough to catch one holding the Lucky Egg.

However, although I know my odds of finding a Chansey holding a Lucky Egg are one in 500 (out of all the Pokemon in Area 2, where I look - the place where Chansey appear most frequently), I don't know the likelihood of catching it once I find it.

How does the capture rate translate into the odds of actually getting the Pokemon? It'd be handy if there were some sort of calculator (like the Damage Calculator) that figured out how likely you are to catch a certain Pokemon with a certain type of ball.


EDIT: I did some research in the Safari Zone in LeafGreen. Using all 30 of my Safari Balls only on Chansey, and never throwing Rocks or Bait, I sighted 12 Chansey, successfully capturing 4 of them. Three of the ones I caught were caught in the first ball I threw.

The odds of capturing a Pokemon may vary with different individuals.
If that is the case, the odds of getting a Chansey are 1 in 3;
If it isn't the case, the odds are 1 in 8.

Sadly, the latter is probably the case, meaning my search for a Lucky Egg is going to be a very long one.


Sun Apr 01, 2007 10:19 pm
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Lite Four
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:03 am
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Location: Singapore
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I don't think it is very possible to input all the factors (eg rarity of the Pokemon, chances of cathing it using the Safari Ball, etc) and calculate a single percentage to represent the chances of obtaining that Pokemon. You need to consider the probabilities at each stage (ie appearance rates, chances of catching it using the Safari Ball, etc).

If someone can figure out a way to make such calculations, do let us know, and maybe Jiggz can come out with something ;o

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Thu Apr 05, 2007 7:18 am
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Ace Trainer
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Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2006 6:06 am
Posts: 253
Location: Hidden in the mists of time...
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I followed a link to GameFAQs.com, provided by peanut-lover, that has a formula for calculating the odds of catching a Pokemon. It says the formula is:
((4 * Total HP - 2 * Current HP) * Capture Rate * Ball Factor) / Total HP, plus Status Factor.
With each attempt, the game generates a random number between 0 and 255. If that random number is below the number calculated by the formula, the Pokemon is caught.

Status Factor = 11 if the Pokemon is asleep or frozen,
6 if it's burnt, poisoned or paralyzed,
and 1 if it has no status ailment.

Ball Factor varies with the ball used.
PokeBall/Premier Ball/Luxury Ball = 1,
Great Ball/Safari Ball = 1.5,
Ultra Ball = 2
Timer Ball = 4 after thirty turns, 3 after twenty turns, 2 after ten turns, 1 after less than ten turns
Net Ball = 3 if the target is Bug or Water type, 1 otherwise
Nest Ball = 3 if the target is below lv19, 2 if the target is between lv20 and lv29, 1 otherwise
Repeat Ball = 3 if the Pokemon has been caught before, 1 otherwise.


Sun Apr 08, 2007 5:41 pm
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Lite Four
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:03 am
Posts: 3827
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Ah, thanks for the formula. I do know of the factors (for the different balls, for example), but I didn't know of the exact formula to calculate chances of capture.

Anyway, it seems that you have answered your own queries in your first post, no? In any case, I'll see if something can be prepared for the main site about capture rates.

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Sat Apr 14, 2007 4:11 am
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