I'm looking to find a Lucky Egg. I know the only way to do this in LeafGreen is to capture wild Chansey in the Safari Zone until you're lucky enough to catch one holding the Lucky Egg.

However, although I know my odds of finding a Chansey holding a Lucky Egg are one in 500 (out of all the Pokemon in Area 2, where I look - the place where Chansey appear most frequently), I don't know the likelihood of catching it once I find it.

How does the capture rate translate into the odds of actually getting the Pokemon? It'd be handy if there were some sort of calculator (like the Damage Calculator) that figured out how likely you are to catch a certain Pokemon with a certain type of ball.


EDIT: I did some research in the Safari Zone in LeafGreen. Using all 30 of my Safari Balls only on Chansey, and never throwing Rocks or Bait, I sighted 12 Chansey, successfully capturing 4 of them. Three of the ones I caught were caught in the first ball I threw.

The odds of capturing a Pokemon may vary with different individuals.
If that is the case, the odds of getting a Chansey are 1 in 3;
If it isn't the case, the odds are 1 in 8.

Sadly, the latter is probably the case, meaning my search for a Lucky Egg is going to be a very long one.

I followed a link to GameFAQs.com, provided by peanut-lover, that has a formula for calculating the odds of catching a Pokemon. It says the formula is:
((4 * Total HP - 2 * Current HP) * Capture Rate * Ball Factor) / Total HP, plus Status Factor.
With each attempt, the game generates a random number between 0 and 255. If that random number is below the number calculated by the formula, the Pokemon is caught.

Status Factor = 11 if the Pokemon is asleep or frozen,
6 if it's burnt, poisoned or paralyzed,
and 1 if it has no status ailment.

Ball Factor varies with the ball used.
PokeBall/Premier Ball/Luxury Ball = 1,
Great Ball/Safari Ball = 1.5,
Ultra Ball = 2
Timer Ball = 4 after thirty turns, 3 after twenty turns, 2 after ten turns, 1 after less than ten turns
Net Ball = 3 if the target is Bug or Water type, 1 otherwise
Nest Ball = 3 if the target is below lv19, 2 if the target is between lv20 and lv29, 1 otherwise
Repeat Ball = 3 if the Pokemon has been caught before, 1 otherwise.